Teoretické očakávania a skutočné výstupy volebných systémov: Ako merať veľkosť deviácie?

Miroslav Nemčok, Jakub Šedo


The paper criticizes current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d = log[NS/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product Model (Taagepera 2007b) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.

Bibliografická citace

Nemčok, M., & Šedo, J. (2017). Teoretické očakávania a skutočné výstupy volebných systémov: Ako merať veľkosť deviácie?. Středoevropské politické studie, 19(3-4), 189-214. doi:https://doi.org/10.5817/CEPSR.2017.34.189

Klíčová slova

Electoral Systems; Theoretical Expectations; Size of Deviation; Measurement Tool; Seat Product Model

Plný Text:



Zobrazit literaturu Skrýt literaturu

Alesina, Alberto a Guido Tabellini (1990): „A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt.“ The Review of Economic Studies 57(3): 403–414. https://doi.org/10.2307/2298021

Austen-Smith, David (2000): „Redistributing Income under Proportional Representation.“ Journal of Political Economy 108(6): 1235–1269. https://doi.org/10.1086/317680

Bowler, Shaun a Todd Donovan (2013): The Limits of Electoral Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199695409.001.0001

Boydstun, Amber E., Shaun Bevan a Thomas F. Herschel (2014): „The Importance of Attention Diversity and How to Measure It.“ Policy Studies Journal 42(2): 173–196. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12055

Budge, Ian, Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Andrea Volkens, Judith Bara, Eric Tanenbaum, Richard C. Fording, Derek J. Hearl, Hee Min Kim, Michael McDonald a Silvia Mendez (2001): Mapping Policy Preferences. Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments 1945-1998. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Carey, John M. a Simon Hix (2011): „The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems.“ American Journal of Political Science 55(2): 383–397. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x

Clark, William R. a Matt Golder (2006): „Rehabilitating Duverger’s Theory: Testing the Mechanical and Strategic Modifying Effects of Electoral Laws.“ Comparative Political Studies 39(6): 679–708. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414005278420

Cox, Gary W. (1997): Making Votes Count. New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1002/ncr.4100520906

Craig, Stephen C., Richard G. Niemi a Glenn E. Silver (1990): „Political Efficacy and Trust: A Report on the NES Pilot Study Items.“ Political Behavior 12(3), s. 289–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992337

Duverger, Maurice (1954): Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. Second edi. London, New York: Methuen & Co. ltd; John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Farrell, David M. (2010): „Reforming Electoral System Is Not Going to Be Enough.“ The Irish Times, online (http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/reforming-electoral-system-is-not-going-to-be-enough-1.616217), [overené k 27. 10. 2017].

Ferland, Benjamin (2014): „How do Voters’ Strategic Behaviors Mediate the Impact of Electoral Systems on the Effective Number of Electoral Parties? An Experimental Study.“ Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24(3): 265–290. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2013.846345

Ferree, Karen E., Bingham G. Powell a Ethan Scheiner (2014): „Context, Electoral Rules, and Party Systems.“ Annual Review of Political Science 17(1): 421–439. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-102512-195419

Finer, Samuel E. (1985): „The Contemporary Context of Representation.“ In: Vernon Bogdanor (ed.), Representations of the People? Parliamentarians and Constituents in Western Democracies. Aldershot, Hants: Gower.

Grumm, John G. (1958): „Theories of Electoral Systems.“ Midwest Journal of Political Science 2(4): 357–376. https://doi.org/10.2307/2108721

Hallerberg, Mark a Jurgen von Hagen (1997): „Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union.“ In: James M. Poterba and Jurgen von Hagen (eds.), Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6341.

Heij, Christiaan, Paul de Boer, Philip Hans Franses, Teun Kloek a Herman K. van Dijk (2004): Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Huber, John D. a Bingham G. Powell (1994): „Congruence between Citizens and Policymakers in Two Visions of Liberal Democracy.“ World Politics 46(3): 291–326. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950684

Chang, Eric C. C. a Miriam A. Golden (2007): „Electoral Systems, District Magnitude and Corruption.“ British Journal of Political Science 37(1): 115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123407000063

Karp, Jeffrey A. a Susan A. Banducci (2008): „Political Efficacy and Participation in Twenty-Seven Democracies: How Electoral Systems Shape Political Behaviour.“ British Journal of Political Science 38(2): 311–334. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000161

Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, Andrea Volkens, Judith Bara, Ian Budge a Michael McDonald (2006): Mapping Policy Preferences II. Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments in Eastern Europe, the European Union and the OECD, 1990-2003. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Knack, Stephen a Philip Keefer (1995): „Institutions and economic performance: Cross-country tests using alternative institutional measures.“ Economics & Politics 7(3): 207–227. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x

Laakso, Markku a Rein Taagepera (1979): „“Effective” Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe.“ Comparative Political Studies 12(1): 3–27.

Lachat, Romain, André Blais a Ignacio Lago (2015): „Assessing the Mechanical and Psychological Effects of District Magnitude.“ Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 25(3): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2014.1002791

Lancaster, Thomas D. a Gabriela R. Montinola (1997): „Toward a methodology for the comparative study of political corruption.“ Crime, Law and Social Change 27(3/4): 185–206. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008274416350

Li, Quan (2005): „Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?“ Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(2): 278–297. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704272830

Li, Yuhun a Matthew S. Shugart (2016): „The Seat Product Model of the Effective Number of Parties: A Case for Applied Political Science.“ Electoral Studies 41 (1): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.10.011

Lijphart, Arend (1984): Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries. New Heaven: Yale University Press.

Lijphart, Arend (1987): „The demise of the last westminster system? Comments on the report of New Zealand’s Royal Commission on the Electoral System.“ Electoral Studies 6(2): 97–103.

Lijphart, Arend (1999): Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-six Countries. First edi. New Heaven: Yale University Press.

Lijphart, Arend (2012): Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-six Countries. Second edi. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Lipson, Leslie (1959): „Party Systems in the United Kingdom and the Older Commonwealth: Causes, Resemblances, and Variations.“ Political Studies 7(1): 12–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1959.tb00889.x

Lowery, David, Arjen van Witteloostuijn, Gabor Peli, Holly Brasher, Simon Otjes a Sergiu Gherghina (2013): „Policy agendas and births and deaths of political parties“ Party Politics, 19(3): 381–407. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068811407576

Lowery, David, Simon Otjes, Sergiu Gherghina, Arjen van Witteloostuijn, Gabor Peli a Holly Brasher (2010): „Unpacking LogM: Toward a More General Theory of Party System Density“ American Journal of Political Science 54(4): 921–935. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00469.x

Marsh, Michael (2002): „Electoral Context.“ Electoral Studies 21(2): 207–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(01)00018-X

Massicotte, Louis a Andre Blais (1999): „Mixed Electoral Systems: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey.“ Electoral Studies 18(3): 341–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(98)00063-8

Norris, Pippa (2004a): Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Norris, Pippa (2004b): „Evaluating Electoral Systems.“ In: Pippa Norris, Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 66–78. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790980.005

Ordeshook, Peter C. a Olga V. Shvetsova (1994): „Ethnic Heterogeneity, District Magnitude, and the Number of Parties.“ American Journal of Political Science 38(1): 100–123. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111337

Persson, Torsten, Gérard Roland a Guido Tabellini (2000): „Comparative Politics and Public Finance.“ Journal of Political Economy 108(6): 1121–1161. https://doi.org/10.1086/317686

Powell, Bingham G. Jr. (1984): Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Powell, Bingham G. Jr. (2000): Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Heaven: Yale University Press.

Qvortrup, Matt (2008): „Citizen initiated referendums (cirs) in New Zealand: A comparative appraisal.“ Representation 44(1): 69–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344890701869157

Rae, Douglas W. (1967): The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Rae, Douglas W. (1995): „Using District Magnitude to Regulate Political Party Competition.“ Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(1): 65–75. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.1.65

Reilly, Ben (1997): „The Alternative Vote and Ethnic Accommodation: New Evidence from Papua New Guinea.“ Electoral Studies 16(1): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(96)00038-8

Reynal-Querol, Marta (2002): „Political systems, stability and civil wars.“ Defence and Peace Economics 13(6): 465–483. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690214332

Riker, William H. (1982): „The Two-Party System and Duverger’s Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science.“ American Political Science Review 76(4): 753–766. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962968

Rogowski, Ronald a Mark A. Kayser (2002): „Majoritarian Electoral Systems and Consumer Power: Price-Level Evidence from the OECD Countries.“ American Journal of Political Science 46(3): 526-539. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088397

Sartori, Giovanni (1986): „The Influence of Electoral Systems: Faulty Laws or Faulty Method?“ In: Bernard Grofman a Arend Lijphart (eds.), Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences. New York: Agathon Press: 43–68.

Scruggs, Lyle A. (1999): „Institutions and Environmental Performance in Seventeen Western Democracies.“ British Journal of Political Science 29(1): 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123499000010

Shugart, Matthew S. (2005): „Comparative Electoral Systems Research: The Maturation of a Field and New Challenges Ahead.“ In: Michael Gallagher a Paul Mitchell (eds.), The Politics of Electoral Systems. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 25–56. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199257566.003.0002

Shugart, Matthew S. (2006): Canada 2006: A Dysfunctional FPTP System, Fruits and Votes, online (https://fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2006/01/24/canada-2006-a-dysfunctional-fptp-system/), [overené k 27. 10. 2017].

Shugart, Matthew S. a Martin P. Wattenberg (2003): Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/019925768X.001.0001

Singer, Matthew M. (2015): „Does Increasing District Magnitude Increase the Number of Parties? Evidence from Spain, 1982-2011.“ Electoral Studies 38 (2): 118–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.01.010

Stoll, Heather (2011): „Dimensionality and the Number of Parties in Legislative Elections.“ Party Politics 17(3): 405–429. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068809346263

Strohmeier, Gerd (2015): „Does Westminster (still) Represent the Westminster Model? An Analysis of the Changing Nature of the UK’s Political System.“ European View 14(2): 303–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12290-015-0368-0

Taagepera, Rein (2007a): „Electoral Systems.“ In: Carles Boix a Susan Carol Stokes (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 678–702. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566020.003.0028

Taagepera, Rein (2007b): Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press.

Taagepera, Rein (2008): Making Social Sciences More Scientific. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001

Taagepera, Rein (2015): Logical Models and Basic Numeracy in Social Sciences, online (http://www.psych.ut.ee/stk/Beginners_Logical_Models.pdf), [overené k 27. 10. 2017].

Taagepera, Rein a Matt Qvortrup (2012): „Who Gets What, When, How – Through Which Electoral System?“ European Political Science 11(2): 244–258. https://doi.org/10.1057/eps.2011.35

Taagepera, Rein a Shugart, Matthew S. (1989): Seats and votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems. New Heaven: Yale University Press.

Taagepera, Rein a Bernard Grofman (1985): „Rethinking Duverger’s Law: Predicting the Effective Number of Parties in Plurality and PR Systems – Parties Minus Issues Equals One.“ European Journal of Political Research 13(4): 341–352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00130.x

van de Wardt, Marc (2017): „Explaining the Effective Number of Parties: Beyond the Standard Model.“ Electoral Studies 45(1): 44–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.11.005


Copyright (c) 2017 Miroslav Nemčok, Jakub Šedo

Creative Commons License
Tato práce je licencována pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.