Voter policy emphasis and party electoral manifestos: Assessing parties’ reflections of voter policy shifts in the 2010 and 2013 Czech parliamentary elections

Roč.19,č.1(2017)

Abstrakt

The party manifesto is a crucial document identifying a party’s ideological position.  Measuring the response of political party manifestos to both the mean voter as well as party constituency positions remains extensively difficult given the lack of available data, but also the complex political realities and factors which the parties must take into consideration e.g. the economy, globalization, the demands of the market, and pressure from rival parties.  In spite of these complexities, this article analyses the extent to which political parties reflect voter policy emphasis in their political manifestos. Through the content analysis of electoral manifestos the article determines the policy positions of Czech political parties during the 2010 and 2013 elections to the Lower House of the Parliament. Identifying also key voter policy preferences the article looks into the possible congruence between shifts in voter emphasis and changes in party electoral manifestos. Employing an approach not yet fully applied in academic research, the article examines shifts within ideological space, while focusing also on specific key policy areas. It concludes that in the short term – from the 2010 to 2013 parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic - political parties responded to shifts in voter policy emphasis in just one quarter of cases. The responsiveness differed significantly from one party to another.


Klíčová slova:
Voter Policy Emphasis; Electoral Manifesto; Party Position Shift; Comparative Manifesto Project
Biografie autora

Lenka Homolková

Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University, Brno
Reference

Adams, James et. al. 2006. “Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties? The Causes and the Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties’ Policy Shifts, 1976–1998.” American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 513–529. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00199.x

Adams, James, Lawrence Ezrow and Zeynep Somer-Topcu. 2011. “Is anybody listening? Evidence that voters do not respond to European parties’ policy statements during elections.” American Journal of Political Science 55(2): 370–382. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00489.x

Benoit, Kenneth et al. 2012. “How to scale coded text units without bias: A response to Gemenis”. Electoral Studies 31(3): 605–608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.05.004

Budge, Ian et al. 1992. Party, Policy and Government Coalitions. London: Sage.

Budge, Ian et al. 2001. Mapping policy preferences: Estimates for parties, electors, and governments 1945-1998, Vol. 1. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Budge, Ian. 2013. “The Standard Right-Left Scale.” Essex University. https://manifestoproject.wzb.eu/down/papers/budge_right-left-scale.pdf.

Budge, Ian and Michael McDonald. 2012. “Conceptualising and measuring ‘centrism’ correctly on the Left-Right scale (RILE) – Without systematic bias: A general response by MARPOR”. Electoral Studies 31(3): 609–612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.05.008

Busch, Kathrin Barbara. 2016. “Estimating parties’ left-right positions: Determinants of voters’ perceptions’ proximity to party ideology.” Electoral studies 41: 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.01.003

Chytilek, Roman. 2014. Politický prostor a politická témata“studie k soutěři politických stran (Political space and political topics: study of the political parties’ competition). Brno: Centrum pro stadium demokracie a kultury (Centre for the Study of Democracy and Culture).

Colomer, Josep M. 2001. “Disequilibrium Institutions and Pluralist Democracy.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 13(3): 235–247. https://doi.org/10.1177/095169280101300301

Comparative Manifesto Project. 2016. Accessed June 5. https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/.

CVVM (Centrum pro výzkum veřejného mínění [The centre for public opinion research]). 2013. “Hodnocení členství v EU a postoj k euro v středoevropském srovnání – léto 2013 (EU membership evaluation and the position towards the Euro in Central-European comparison)”. Tisková zpráva (Press Release), pm131009. http://cvvm.soc.cas.cz/media/c om_form2content/documents/c1/a7097/f3/pm131009.pdf.

CVVM. 2013a. “Občané o hospodářské situaci ČR a o životní úrovni svých domácností – září 2013 (Citizens on the economic situation in the Czech Republic and on the situation in their households)“. Tisková zpráva (Press Release), ev131004. http://cvvm.soc.cas.cz/ media/com_form2content/documents/c1/a7095/f3/ev131004.pdf.

CVVM. 2016. Accessed June 1. http://cvvm.soc.cas.cz.

CVVM. 2016a. “Sebezařazení na levo-pravé škále politické orientace – duben 2016 (Self identification at the left-rightscale of the political orientation – April 2016)“. Tisková zpráva (Press Release), po160517. http://cvvm.soc.cas.cz/media/com_form2content/ documents/c1/a7559/f3/po160517.pdf.

Eurobarometer. 2010. Eurobarometer 73: Public Opinion in the European Union: first results. August 2010. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb73/eb73_en.htm.

Eurobarometer. 2013. Eurobarometer 80: Public Opinion in the European Union: first results. December 2013. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_en.htm.

Eurobarometer. 2016. Accessed June 1, 2017. ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/ index_en.htm.

Ezrow, Lawrence. 2014. “Responding to Voters or Responding to Markets? Political Parties and Public Opinion in an Era of Globalization. International Studies Quarterly 58: 816–827. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12129

Ezrow, Lawrence et. al. 2011. “Mean Voter Representation and Partisan Constituency Representation: Do Parties Respond to the Mean Voter Position or to their Supporters?” Party Politics 17 (3): 275–301. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810372100

Fossati, Flavia and Silja Hausermann. 2014. “Social Policy Preferences and Party Choice in the 2011 Swiss Elections.” Political Science Review 20(4): 590–611. https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12115

Gherghina, Sergiu. 2009. “Still Waters Run Deep: Party Organization and Electoral Stability in New Democracies.” ECPR Joint Sessions. Lisbon, April 14–19. https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/00696bca-cb94-49ac-8577-9ff2aa1896a6.pdf.

Havlík, Vlastimil and Petr Voda. 2016. “The Rise of New Political Parties and Re-Alignment of Party Politics in the Czech Republic.” Acta Politologica 8(2): 119–144.

Chytilek, Roman, and Otto Eibl. 2011. “České politické strany v politickém prostoru (Czech political parties in the policy space).” Sociologický časopis (Czech Sociological Review) 47(1): 61–88.

Klingemann, Hans-Dieter et al. 2006. Mapping Policy Preferences II. Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments in Eastern Europe, the European Union and the OECD, 1990-2003. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Kunštát, Daniel. 2004. “Parametry stranické identity českých voličů (Characteristics of party identity of the Czech voters).” Naše společnost (Our society) 2(2): 18–21.

Laver, Michael and Ian Budge (eds.). 1992. Party Policy and Government Coalitions. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: The MacMillan Press.

Leimgruber, Philipp, Dominik Hangartner and Lucas Leemann. (2010): “Comparing Candidates and Citizens in the Ideological Space.” Swiss Political Science Review 16(3): 499–531. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1662-6370.2010.tb00439.x

Lowe, Will, et al. 2011. “Scaling policy preferences from coded political texts.” Legislative studies quarterly 36(1): 123–155. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-9162.2010.00006.x

Maškarinec, Pavel and Petr Bláha. 2014. “For whom the Bell Tolls: Grievance Theory and the Rise of New Political Parties in the 2010 and 2013 Czech Parliamentary Elections.” Sociologia 46(6): 706–731.

McDonald, Michael and Silvia M. Mendés. 2001. “The policy space of party manifestos.” In Michael Laver (ed.). Estimating the Policy Position of Political Actors. London: Routledge, 90–114

Merrill, Samuel and Bernard Grofman. 1999. A Unified Theory of Voting: Directional and Spatial Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Meguid, Bonnie M. 2005. “Competition Between Unequals: The Role of Mainstream Party Strategy in Niche Party Success.” American Political Science Review 99(3): 347–359. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055405051701

Meyer, Thomas M. 2013. Constraints on party policy change. Colchester: ECPR Press, University of Essex.

Schumacher, Gijs, Catherine E.de Vries and Barbara Vis. 2013. “Why Political Parties Change Their Positions: Environmental Incentives & Party Organisation. The Journal of Politics 57 (2): 464–477. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000145

STEM. 2009. “Hodnocení stavu společnosti za rok 2009 (Evaluation of the state of the society in 2009)”, January 2010. https://www.stem.cz/vysvedceni-ceske-spolecnosti-za-rok-2009/.

STEM. (2013): “Nespokojenost s fungováním demokracie a činností politických stran jako záruky demokracie trvá (Dissatisfaction with the democracy functioning and functioning of political parties to guarantee democracy prevail)”, May 14. https://www.stem.cz/fungovani-demokracie-u-nas/.

STEM. 2016. Accessed June 1. www.stem.cz.

Stimson, James, Michael MacKuen and Robert Erikson. 1995. “Dynamic of representation.” Political Science Review 89: 543–565. https://doi.org/10.2307/2082973

Volkens, Andrea et al. 2016. The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2016a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB).

Volkens, Andrea et al. 2016a. “Manifesto Project Dataset – List of Coded Documents,” 34–37. In Andrea Volkens et al. The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2016a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB).

Wagner, M. 2012. “Defining and measuring niche parties.” Party Politics 18(6): 845–864. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810393267

Walczak, Agnieszka, Wouter van der Brug and Catherine E. de Vries. 2012. “Long- and short-term determinants of party preferences: Inter-generational differences in Western and East Central Europe.” Electoral studies 31: 273–284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.11.007

Warwick, Paul V. 2010. “Bilateralism or the median mandate?: an examination of rival perspectives on democratic governance. European Journal of Political Research 49(1): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01878.x

Metriky

0

Crossref logo

0


802

Views

301

PDF (angličtina) views

860

HTML (angličtina) views