Machine Learning Prediction of Player Performance in the Czech National Basketball League
Vol.20,No.1(2026)
This study examines whether machine learning can be used to predict player performance in the Czech National Basketball League (NBL) using only information available before a game. Publicly available player- and team-level data were collected from the official NBL website and FIBA LiveStats, and the target variable was defined as Performance Index Rating (PIR), a widely used indicator of overall player efficiency in European basketball. To ensure practical usability and methodological validity, all predictor variables were constructed exclusively from pre-game information, including lagged and rolling statistics from previous matches, and explicit steps were taken to prevent data leakage. Three supervised learning models were compared: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a simple neural network. Model performance was evaluated using R², MAE, RMSE, and MSE. Among the tested models, XGBoost achieved the best overall performance, although the predictive accuracy remained moderate rather than high, indicating that pre-game prediction of PIR is a challenging task in a smaller European league context. Feature-importance and SHAP analyses showed that prior PIR, recent form, minutes-related indicators, and selected matchup variables contributed most strongly to predictions. The study contributes to the growing literature on sports analytics by providing a transparent and reproducible pre-game prediction pipeline for Czech basketball, and the article-specific code, analytical notebook, and merged player-game dataset are made publicly available in an online repository.
pre-game prediction; Performance Index Rating; sports analytics; explainable AI; predictive modeling
Chandru, R., Kaushik, A., & Jaiswal, P. (2025). Enhancing basketball team strategies through predictive analytics of player performance. Electronics, 14(11), 2177. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14112177
Han, J. (2024). Performance evaluation and contribution measurement of basketball players based on VW-KNN algorithm. Proceedings of the AIEA International Conference 2024, 136–140.
Hu, H., Dimitrov, G., Menn, D., & Wu, S. (2022). NBA player performance prediction based on XGBoost and synergies [Course project report]. University of Washington. https://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/cse547/23wi/projects/NBA_Performance.pdf
Kannan, A., Kolovich, B., Lawrence, B., & Rafiqi, S. (2018). Predicting National Basketball Association success: A machine learning approach. SMU Data Science Review, 1(3), Article 7. https://scholar.smu.edu/datasciencereview/vol1/iss3/7
Lampis, T., Ntzoufras, I., Vassalos, V., & Dimitriou, S. (2023). Predictions of European basketball match results with machine learning algorithms. Journal of Sports Analytics, 9(2), 171–190. https://doi.org/10.3233/JSA-220639
Nguyen, N. H., Nguyen, D. T. A., Ma, B. K., & Hu, J. (2022). The application of machine learning and deep learning in sport: Predicting NBA players’ performance and popularity. Journal of Information and Telecommunication, 6(2), 217–235. https://doi.org/10.1080/24751839.2021.1977066
Ouyang, Y., Li, X., Zhou, W., Hong, W., Zheng, W., Qi, F., & others. (2024). Integration of XGBoost and SHAP models for NBA game outcome prediction and quantitative analysis methodology. PLOS ONE, 19(7), e0307478. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0307478
Papageorgiou, G., Sarlis, V., & Tjortjis, C. (2024). Evaluating the effectiveness of machine learning models for performance forecasting in basketball: A comparative study. Knowledge and Information Systems, 66, 4333–4375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10115-024-02092-9

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright © 2026 Šimon Salaj