Decoupling Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis

Joanna Wyrobek; Zbigniew Stańczyk

doi:10.5817/FAI2013-3-2

Decoupling Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis

Vol.4,No.3(2013)

Joanna Wyrobek Zbigniew Stańczyk

https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2013-3-2

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to present the decoupling hypothesis which says that the performance of emerging economies becomes relatively independent of the changes in advanced economies, and to empirically verify this hypothesis. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter and spectral analyses have been applied to examine the hypothesis. On the basis of obtained results, comparing the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trend, it seems that the synchronization of cycles between emerging and advanced economies was already high before the crisis. The last global crisis, especially if time shifts between the countries are taken into account, even increased the synchronization of the economies. Therefore, this paper presents evidence against the decoupling hypothesis, and at the same time it raises doubts whether the high GDP growth rates in emerging economies can be sustainable in the presence of the slow-down in the advanced economies. The paper analyzes the situation from the Poland’s point of view as the country which is on the verge of joining the ERM2 system and adopting the euro (synchronization divagations are important for this decision) and because Poland is a good example of an emerging economy.

Keywords:
decoupling; business cycle synchronization; spectral analysis; emerging economies

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