Influence of Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy

Vol.11,No.1(2020)

Özcan Karahan

https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2020-1-2

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Abstract
The traditional view asserts that there is a positive relationship between the foreign exchange rate and economic growth. So much so that an increase in foreign exchange rates enhances the net export volume and thus positively affects economic growth due to the increasing total demand. However, structural economists argue that there is an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth. Especially in developing countries, the input structure of production depends on imported capital and intermediate goods, so an increase in exchange rates makes import production inputs more expensive and thus negatively affects economic growth. Turkey, leaving foreign exchange rate free float since 2002, has implemented the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime as the monetary policy. Therefore, Turkey has a real experience to analyse the role of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Accordingly, in our study, using the quarterly data between 2002-Q1 and 2019-Q1, the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth was examined by employing Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and Innovation Accounting Techniques. Empirical findings suggest that there is a negative causal relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, as claimed by structuralist economists. In terms of policy implications, it can be argued that, even under the inflation targeting regime in Turkey, both price and exchange rate stability should be provided together.

Keywords:
cointegration; exchange rate; economic growth; Granger causality; time-series model; vector error correction model
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